This episode provides a concise overview of the global cocoa market as of July 13, 2025,
- Ghana's cocoa production is projected to increase to 650,000 metric tons for the 2025–26 season, fostering a bearish global price sentiment. However, the Ghana Cocoa Board is struggling with GHS 33 billion in debt, potentially compromising its capacity to support farmers and manage input distribution. This financial strain may threaten the country’s ability to meet its production targets.
- In Ivory Coast, cocoa exports have slowed markedly, with growth dropping to 6.2 percent from last year’s 35 percent. Heavy rainfall has adversely affected the mid-crop harvest, leading to a rise in low-quality beans and contributing to a downward trend in total production, now estimated at 1.6 million metric tons from over 2 million.
- Nigeria has seen a 29 percent decline in cocoa exports, falling to 14,110 metric tons as of May. This reduction tightens global supply, which could support prices despite broader bearish pressures. Domestic processing initiatives in Nigeria are hindered by weak demand and infrastructural issues.
- Globally, the market faces significant downward pressure from increased production forecasts, notably in Ghana, and rising inventory levels in the United States. Consumer demand is weakening due to economic uncertainty, high prices, and tariff challenges affecting major chocolate producers. While the International Cocoa Organization projects a sharper deficit for the 2023–24 season, it anticipates a surplus for 2024–25, introducing additional complexity to future market expectations.
