This episode delivers an in-depth weekly summary of the global cocoa market as of July 20, 2025.
- Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is experiencing mixed agricultural conditions. From October to July, cocoa shipments to ports are projected to increase by 6.8 percent. However, this figure is modest compared to the 35 percent surge reported the previous December. Heavy rainfall has disrupted the mid-crop harvest, leading to a rise in poor-quality beans, now affecting 5 to 6 percent of the harvest—up from 1 percent during the main crop. The mid-crop is estimated at 400,000 metric tons, marking a 9 percent decline from the previous year. These quality issues are contributing to price stabilization despite increasing supply.
- Ghana, the second-largest global cocoa producer, is forecasted to see an 8.3 percent year-on-year production increase in the 2025–2026 season, reaching 650,000 metric tons. This growth is supported by favorable weather, though sporadic adverse conditions still pose risks to productivity.
- In contrast, cocoa sectors in Nigeria and Cameroon are facing less favorable conditions. Limited data from these regions suggest that adverse weather may negatively impact yields, further tightening regional supply.
- On the demand side, there is a notable global downturn, with cocoa grinding activity declining in Asia, Europe, and North America. This reduction in demand, coupled with Ghana’s anticipated production boost, may exert downward pressure on global cocoa prices.
- The International Cocoa Organization has significantly revised its estimate of the 2023–2024 global cocoa deficit, now labeling it the largest in over 60 years. Nevertheless, a surplus is projected for the 2024–2025 period.
- Finally, cocoa futures markets remain volatile, reacting to ongoing crop yield updates, quality concerns in key regions like Ivory Coast, and broader economic influences. Major chocolate manufacturers are also adjusting production forecasts in response to fluctuating cocoa prices.
