This week’s episode presents an overview of the global cocoa market as of August 3, 2025.
- Ivory Coast aims to increase its local cocoa processing rate from 42 percent to 50 percent by 2027, targeting 750,000 metric tons in annual grindings. This initiative is supported by infrastructure expansions such as a new grinding facility in Abidjan and the enlargement of the San Pedro Port. However, progress is hindered by slow export growth and deteriorating bean quality. In mid-July, exports grew just 6.8 percent year over year, a steep decline from 35 percent growth seen in December. The European Union’s new deforestation regulations, which require traceability, add further strain on smaller operators, prompting calls for government intervention. Meanwhile, cocoa yield for the mid-crop is estimated to fall 9 percent to 400,000 metric tons due to adverse weather, and the rollout of a digital traceability platform has sparked concerns about its impact on small exporters. Global demand for chocolate is also waning, as reflected by reduced grindings in major regions.
- In Ghana, a projected 8.3 percent increase in cocoa production to 650,000 metric tons is threatened by excessive rainfall, limited sunlight, and heightened risks of fungal diseases such as black pod. These conditions challenge the Ghana Cocoa Board’s production goals despite disease control efforts. Additionally, regional price disparities are driving cocoa smuggling, while quality issues are affecting neighboring producers and contributing to market instability.
- At the global level, the cocoa market faces its largest supply deficit in 60 years, with the International Cocoa Organization reporting a 494,000 metric tons shortfall for the 2023–2024 season. Grindings have declined in key areas, reflecting reduced demand, while high prices driven by supply constraints are dampening chocolate consumption and affecting financial forecasts. Upcoming policy changes, including tariff exemptions, may offer some relief but also introduce new complexities to international trade.
- The cocoa sectors in both Ivory Coast and Ghana are navigating a challenging period marked by environmental, regulatory, and market pressures. Strategic adaptations will be essential for these countries to maintain resilience and competitiveness in a volatile global market.
