This episode provides a detailed overview of the global cocoa market for the week of August 10, 2025.
- The Ivory Coast, the largest global cocoa producer, is facing a significant slowdown in production growth, with exports up only 6 percent this year to 1.76 million metric tons, compared to a 35 percent increase last year. Adverse weather conditions, including reduced rainfall and higher temperatures, are impacting both yield and quality ahead of the main crop harvest in October. Mid-crop yields have been revised downward to 400,000 metric tons from an earlier 440,000 metric ton forecast, due to quality rejections affecting up to 6 percent of the crop. Political considerations are also at play, with speculation that the government may raise cocoa prices before upcoming elections to secure farmer support.
- Ghana, the second-largest producer, expects an 8.3 percent production increase for the 2025–26 season, potentially reaching 650,000 metric tons. This could exert downward pressure on global prices. In contrast, Nigeria is projecting an 11 percent decline to 305,000 metric tons, contributing to upward price pressures. Guyana has increased producer prices to support livelihoods and stimulate tourism through infrastructure improvements in cocoa-producing regions.
- Globally, cocoa demand is weakening, with grindings in Europe down 7.2 percent and in Asia down 16.3 percent year on year, marking the lowest second-quarter levels in eight years. Despite this, the International Cocoa Organization has raised its estimate for the current season’s deficit to 494,000 metric tons but forecasts a surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024–25, driven by a 7.8 percent production rise to 4.84 million metric tons.
- A major concern in Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana is the increase in cocoa smuggling, fueled by high global prices, price disparities, weak enforcement, and corruption. This is causing substantial public revenue losses and threatening economic stability. These factors are shaping both current and future cocoa market dynamics, influencing everything from African economies to international chocolate pricing and agricultural sustainability efforts.
