This episode provides a detailed weekly summary of the global cocoa market as of August 17, 2025.
- Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, is currently facing unfavorable weather conditions characterized by below-average rainfall and high temperatures. These conditions are jeopardizing pod development ahead of the October main crop harvest. Despite this, the country has seen a 6.6% year-over-year increase in cocoa exports, totaling 1,780,000 metric tons between October and August 10. However, this growth reflects a decrease from a December export surge, and concerns remain about crop quality, with 5% to 6% of the mid-crop yield classified as poor due to delayed rains. The mid-crop yield is estimated at 400,000 metric tons, marking a 9% decline from the previous year.
- In contrast, Ghana forecasts an 8.3% increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 period, reaching 650,000 metric tons. The growth is supported by government initiatives such as fertilizer subsidies and pest control programs. Meanwhile, Nigeria expects an 11% decline in cocoa output, down to 305,000 metric tons, due to adverse weather and aging plantations. Nevertheless, demand for Nigerian cocoa is rising, particularly through new trade ties with Belgium, reflecting the country's shift towards agricultural exports.
- Globally, the cocoa market is in flux, with production variances and shifting demand patterns. Cocoa grinding has declined in Europe (7.2%), Asia (16.3%), and North America (2.8%), highlighting demand fluctuations. Despite this, the International Cocoa Organization has reported a record global deficit of 494,000 metric tons for the 2023–2024 season, followed by a forecasted surplus of 142,000 metric tons for 2024–2025, influencing market prices.
- The episode also discusses technological innovations, such as MARS Inc.'s collaboration with Pairwise on CRISPR gene editing. These efforts aim to enhance cocoa crop resilience and productivity in response to challenges like climate change and disease, aligning with broader strategies for agricultural advancement and economic diversification across West Africa.
