This week's episode provides a global cocoa market developments as of September 21, 2025.
- In Ivory Coast, favorable weather has boosted the main cocoa crop, but extended heavy rains have hampered port deliveries and bean drying, raising quality concerns. The mid-crop output has declined 9% year over year, reaching 400,000 metric tons. Export growth has also slowed to 5.8%, further altering market dynamics.
- Ghana forecasts an 8.3% increase in cocoa production for the 2025–2026 season, aiming for 650,000 metric tons. This outlook is underpinned by better access to fertilizers and pest control, though irregular rainfall and the prevalence of black pod disease continue to threaten yields and processing margins, especially in the Western North region.
- Nigeria anticipates an 11% production decline to 305,000 metric tons, primarily due to erratic weather and logistical challenges. Nonetheless, exports have edged up by 0.9% year over year. Policy measures are being considered to support the sector.
- Cameroon is also facing a projected 6% production decrease, driven by pest pressure and inconsistent rainfall. Emergency pesticide efforts and price stabilization initiatives are in motion, but climatic instability remains a threat to quality premiums.
- In Ecuador, extreme heat and rainfall shortages have negatively affected cocoa pod development and bean weight, prompting concerns over meeting premium export standards. Exporters have called for emergency government support to mitigate these challenges.
- Despite positive crop projections in some regions, the global cocoa market remains cautious due to persistent structural vulnerabilities and quality concerns, which continue to impact local economies and international supply chains.
