This episode provides a comprehensive overview of the current trends, challenges, and developments shaping the global cocoa market.
- Côte d’Ivoire, which contributes about 40% of the world’s cocoa supply, continues to benefit from government-led agricultural improvement and sustainability initiatives. However, these gains are moderated by unpredictable weather conditions and threats from pests and disease. Political stability and a supportive regulatory environment remain essential to maintaining production levels. Recent projections indicate potential output growth, bolstered by favorable conditions and efforts to replace aging cocoa trees.
- In Ghana, the second largest global producer, the emphasis on sustainable farming is beginning to show positive results in yield improvement. The Ghana Cocoa Board plays a critical role by equipping farmers with training and resources. Rising global demand for high-quality cocoa, especially for dark chocolate, is also influencing market dynamics.
- Despite these advancements, cocoa farmers face volatility. Price fluctuations continue to threaten income stability and the long-term viability of sustainable practices. Nigeria, facing an 11% projected year-on-year decline in production, struggles with plant diseases and inefficient farming techniques. Market and economic pressures further affect pricing and profitability.
- Ecuador is emerging as a significant player, with expected production exceeding 650,000 metric tons in the 2025–26 season. High cocoa prices are driving investment, and Ecuadorian farmers receive a larger share of global market prices—about 90%—which enhances profitability. The adoption of agroforestry systems supports both sustainability and disease management.
- On a global level, the cocoa market is undergoing structural changes. Elevated prices are reshaping demand, pushing some buyers toward more cost-effective options or reducing their purchases. The International Cocoa Organization anticipates a global surplus, which could help stabilize prices but also pose risks if demand continues to weaken. Across regions, sustainable farming remains essential for long-term industry resilience in the face of evolving economic and environmental conditions.
