This week's cocoa market update focuses on production trends, policy responses, and disease challenges shaping the outlook across major West African producers: Ivory Coast, Ghana, and Nigeria.
- Ivory Coast is experiencing a mixed production season. While the main crop (October to March) shows promise with a 7 percent increase in pod counts above the five-year average due to favorable weather, the mid-crop harvest (April to September) fell 9 percent year over year. This decline is linked to late rains that hindered pod development. Export growth slowed significantly, dropping from a 35 percent rise as of December 2024 to just 4.6 percent year over year. The cocoa swollen shoot virus continues to pose a major threat, with potential yield losses of up to 70 percent.
- In Ghana, the government has implemented a strategic 12 percent increase in farm gate cocoa prices for the 2025–2026 season. This move is designed to support farmer incomes and boost production, with forecasts indicating an 8.3 percent rise. However, risks remain from the swollen shoot virus and climate-induced dry spells, which may offset gains. Weak global demand and the possibility of cocoa surpluses could place downward pressure on prices.
- Nigeria faces an expected 11 percent drop in cocoa production for the season, mainly due to adverse weather and disease. Nonetheless, exports have managed a modest year-over-year increase. The production challenges reflect broader regional concerns around quality control, disease management, and agricultural practices.
