This episode provides a concise update on the global cocoa market as of October 12, 2025.
- Ivory Coast has increased its guaranteed farm gate price to $4.5 per kilogram, a strategic move ahead of upcoming elections aimed at improving farmer incomes. As the world’s leading cocoa producer, contributing 14% to national GDP and supporting around 5 million people, this price hike may prompt neighboring countries like Ghana to reevaluate their own pricing models. Favorable weather conditions support strong cocoa pod development, although concerns persist about mid-crop quality due to earlier adverse weather.
- Ghana has responded with a fivefold increase in cocoa deliveries, reaching 50,440 metric tons in a recent month. The country is also raising farmer payouts to boost production, which is projected to grow 8.3% annually to 650,000 metric tons. In contrast, Nigeria anticipates an 11% decline in output to 305,000 metric tons, citing poor farm management, declining exports, and limited access to farming inputs. These trends highlight structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s cocoa sector.
- The International Cocoa Organization forecasts a global surplus of 142,000 metric tons for the 2024–2025 season, driven mainly by increased production in Ivory Coast and Ghana. Despite rising output, global demand remains subdued. Chocolate consumption is falling in key markets such as Europe, Asia, and North America due to high cocoa prices and economic pressures. This supply-demand imbalance is contributing to downward pressure on prices, presenting both challenges for producers and potential price relief for consumers.
