This week's cocoa market report highlights regional production shifts.
- In the Ivory Coast, cocoa pod counts have risen 7% above the five-year average, driven by higher farmgate prices. However, exports fell sharply, down over 50% year on year, totaling just 48,753 metric tons in early October. While the elevated pricing policy aims to support farmer incomes and encourage production, critics warn it may lead to global oversupply. Additionally, mid-crop quality and volumes have declined due to insufficient rainfall, with estimates lowered to 400,000 metric tons (a 9% annual drop).
- Ghana, by contrast, has seen a surge in cocoa deliveries. Between August and early September, arrivals reached 50,440 metric tons, up from just 11,000 metric tons the prior year. This has boosted optimism for the 2025–26 main crop, with a target of 650,000 metric tons, up 8.3% from last year. Meanwhile, Nigeria faces a forecasted 11% production drop to 305,000 metric tons, driven by aging trees, poor infrastructure, and shortages of agricultural inputs. Although exports rose by 15% in August, they declined 22% year on year in July, reflecting ongoing systemic issues.
- Globally, the International Cocoa Organization projects a 142,000 metric ton surplus for the current season, driven by a 7.8% increase in production to 4.84 million metric tons. This supply growth, coupled with weakening grind data from key regions (including a 35% year-on-year drop in Malaysia's Q3 grindings and a 21% decline in North American chocolate candy sales), is placing downward pressure on prices.
- Despite short-term tensions such as ICE-monitored stocks falling to a six-month low, the broader market outlook remains bearish.
