This episode provides an in-depth overview of the cocoa market.
- Ivory Coast enters the season with strong production expectations, with pod counts above the five-year average. However, significant volumes of preseason stock are being rejected by grinders and exporters due to concerns over small bean size and low fat content. Although the main crop is robust, the mid-crop yield is expected to decline by 9% from the previous year, raising quality concerns. In response to economic pressures and the upcoming presidential election, the government has raised cocoa prices to support approximately five million farmers. Despite this, liquidity shortages and quality issues are limiting trader willingness to finance new purchases.
- Cocoa exports from Ivory Coast have seen a modest year-on-year increase, but logistical and financial hurdles are delaying shipments. On the sustainability front, 40% of cocoa is now digitally traceable, though delays in EU deforestation legislation may slow further reforms.
- Ghana’s cocoa sector is poised for recovery, with projected production exceeding 650,000 tons for the 2025–2026 season, thanks to improved farming practices and government programs. However, long-term risks from soil degradation and illegal mining remain. Subsidies and pricing support have reduced smuggling, bolstering Ghana’s market position.
- Global demand continues to lag, particularly in Europe and North America, exerting downward pressure on prices. Despite this, local enterprises are innovating with cocoa pulp to diversify income streams for farmers. As production rises across West Africa, the global cocoa market is expected to shift from a deficit to a surplus. However, demand recovery remains slow, indicated by lower grinding volumes in key consumption regions.
