Here's a professional summary of the episode focused on the global cocoa market for November 23, 2025:
- Cocoa production in Ivory Coast is currently above the five-year average, driven by favorable weather and optimal pod development. Despite a 5.7 percent year-on-year decline in exports for October and November, the drop reflects logistical challenges rather than reduced output. Farmers remain hopeful for the main crop, though global demand fluctuations and policy changes add uncertainty. Ghana reports similarly strong production prospects due to healthy agricultural conditions, but faces demand-side and regulatory pressures.
- Nigeria contrasts with its neighbors, projecting an 11 percent production decline for the 2025–2026 season. This decrease stems from infrastructure gaps and local climate issues, though exports have remained stable, showcasing resilience. Meanwhile, the United States has removed a 10 percent import tariff on cocoa, aiming to lower costs and encourage imports.
- In the European Union, the implementation of a deforestation regulation targeting cocoa-linked land use violations has been delayed. This temporarily reduces pressure on suppliers in West Africa and South America. However, global cocoa demand remains subdued. Declining grind data in key markets like North America, Asia, and Europe reflects reduced chocolate sales, with companies such as Hershey noting downward trends. As a result, the International Cocoa Organization now forecasts a market surplus, reversing earlier deficit projections.
- Overall, while favorable production in Ivory Coast and Ghana supports supply, weakened demand and Nigeria’s production setbacks complicate the market outlook and contribute to price volatility.
