This week’s global cocoa market report.
- The Ivory Coast is set to benefit from the European Union's delayed enforcement of its deforestation regulation, preserving market access until late 2026. While cocoa pod counts are currently 7 percent above the five-year average, port arrivals have dropped by 3.7 percent year over year, totaling 618,899 metric tons as of late November. This contrast between strong crop indicators and reduced logistical throughput highlights ongoing sector vulnerabilities.
- Ghana shares a similarly positive crop outlook, bolstered by the EU’s regulatory delay. However, declining cocoa grind rates in key consumption regions may weigh on demand for Ghanaian cocoa. Nigeria, meanwhile, is expected to see an 11 percent drop in cocoa production due to limited investment and agronomic issues. Nonetheless, broader global supply appears stable due to compensating growth in other producing countries.
- Globally, cocoa demand is under pressure. Asian grind data reveals a 17 percent decline, while Europe reports a 4.8 percent drop, both pointing to reduced chocolate production. North American markets also face weak retail sales, with notable downturns from firms like Hershey.
- On the trading front, March 2026 cocoa futures are under sustained bearish pressure, hovering near $5,050 per ton. Without consistent closes above $5,750, market sentiment remains negative, and lower support levels may be tested. Overall, while production forecasts are favorable in parts of West Africa, market direction is dominated by regulatory timing, demand softness, and technical pricing patterns.
