This episode provides a concise briefing on the evolving dynamics of the global cocoa market as of February 9, 2025.
As supply pressures intensify and major chocolate manufacturers respond to soaring costs, the cocoa industry faces a critical period of adjustment and strategic recalibration.
Key Themes Discussed:
Ivory Coast Production Outlook Improves but Export Growth Slows
- Recent rains have stimulated reflowering in Ivory Coast’s cocoa trees, boosting production prospects.
- Exports rose by 22% year-on-year to 1.29 million metric tons, although this marks a slowdown from December’s 35% surge.
- The 2024–25 production forecast has been revised upward to a range of 2.1–2.2 million metric tons, from an earlier estimate of 2.0 million tons.
Mixed Crop Conditions in Ghana Lead to Further Downgrades
- Ghana’s cocoa sector, despite some recent rainfall, continues to struggle with Harmattan-induced crop stress.
- The 2024–25 production forecast has been cut to 650,000 metric tons, down from 700,000, following a dramatic drop in the 2023–24 harvest to a 23-year low of 425,000 metric tons.
Nigeria’s Export Surge Could Influence Short-Term Pricing
- Nigeria recorded an 87% year-on-year jump in cocoa exports in December, reaching 46,696 metric tons.
- As the world’s sixth-largest cocoa producer, Nigeria’s strengthening export performance may introduce some downward pressure on global prices amid widespread supply tightness.
Severe Global Cocoa Deficit and Tightened Stockpiles
- The International Cocoa Organization now forecasts a 478,000 metric ton global cocoa deficit for 2023–24, a sharper shortfall than previously anticipated.
- ICE-monitored cocoa inventories in the U.S. have fallen to a 21-year low, intensifying supply scarcity concerns.
Chocolate Giants Adjust Strategies Amid Rising Costs
- Hershey is seeking regulatory approval to surpass standard futures trading limits, aiming to procure over 90,000 metric tons of cocoa to secure supply.
- Both Hershey and Mondelez International are experiencing profitability pressures, prompting recipe reformulations and revised earnings forecasts to manage soaring input costs.
Strategic Implications:
Persistent Supply Chain Stress
- Weather disruptions, disease pressures, and declining stockpiles are converging to create sustained volatility in global cocoa markets.
Rising Corporate Adaptation Costs
- Major chocolate manufacturers are actively reshaping products and pricing strategies to navigate the sharp rise in cocoa costs.
Short-Term Relief from Nigeria Insufficient
- While Nigeria’s export surge provides temporary market support, structural deficits in Ivory Coast and Ghana ensure that broader supply concerns remain elevated.
Elevated Market Volatility
- Supply-driven price increases combined with potential demand erosion could create unstable trading conditions well into the second half of 2025
