This episode provides a strategic update on the global cocoa market as of February 23, 2025.
Amid tightening inventories, slowing exports, and currency-driven volatility, cocoa prices continue to face significant upward pressure while market players adjust to evolving supply-demand dynamics.
Key Themes Discussed:
Ivory Coast Cocoa Export Trends
- Ivory Coast cocoa exports have slowed, recording 20% year-over-year growth, a notable decline from the 35% rise reported in December 2024.
- Since October, 1,340,000 metric tons of cocoa have been shipped, while global inventory tightening continues to support prices despite softening demand signals.
Weather Conditions and Yield Prospects
- Central regions in Ivory Coast have benefited from favorable rainfall, improving yield prospects for the upcoming mid-crop season.
- Nevertheless, dry conditions and persistent Harmattan winds remain a threat to cocoa tree health.
- Production forecasts for 2024–25 have been raised to 2.2 million metric tons, but weather-related risks continue to loom.
Ghana’s Cocoa Sector Challenges
- Ghana’s Cocoa Board revised its 2024–25 production estimate downward to 650,000 metric tons, down from 700,000 metric tons.
- This follows a 23-year low harvest in 2023–24 at just 425,000 metric tons, driven by severe weather and widespread crop disease.
Global Cocoa Market Volatility
- Strengthening of the British pound and persistent high cocoa prices have led manufacturers like Hershey and Mondelez to reformulate products and prepare for demand adjustments.
- The International Cocoa Organization has raised the global cocoa deficit forecast for 2023–24 to 478,000 metric tons — the largest supply gap in over six decades.
Cocoa Liquor Market Growth Outlook
- The cocoa liquor market is projected to expand from USD 23.4 billion in 2023 to USD 38.7 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of 5.3%.
- North America’s demand surged by 30.2%, fueled by a growing appetite for premium, antioxidant-rich cocoa products across food, bakery, and cosmetics sectors.
Strategic Implications:
Ongoing Supply Tightness
- Adverse weather, crop diseases, and logistical challenges are expected to maintain upward pressure on cocoa prices throughout 2025.
Consumer Demand Shift Toward Premium Products
- Rising interest in premium cocoa applications continues to drive innovation and demand across multiple sectors.
Manufacturer Strategy Shifts
- Recipe modifications, cost management efforts, and cautious demand outlooks are becoming critical strategies for chocolate producers.
Macro-Economic Pressures
- Currency fluctuations, particularly in the British pound and U.S. dollar, are amplifying cocoa market volatility and influencing global trade flows.
