This episode highlights the evolving dynamics of the global cocoa market as of March 2, 2025.
As cocoa prices remain elevated and supply challenges persist, producers and manufacturers are navigating complex agricultural, economic, and geopolitical factors shaping the market.
Key Themes Discussed:
Ivory Coast Cocoa Sector Overview
- Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, recorded a 17% year-over-year rise in cocoa exports, reaching 1,360,000 metric tons between October 1, 2024, and February 23, 2025.
- However, export growth is decelerating, and the production forecast for the 2024–25 season remains unchanged from the previous year’s underwhelming output, primarily due to unfavorable weather and crop conditions.
- Recent rains may benefit the upcoming mid-crop, but overall production conditions remain a concern.
- Cocoa smuggling poses additional risks, with 2,000 metric tons of falsely declared cocoa seized recently. Authorities are working to curb this trend as part of broader agricultural diversification initiatives.
Ghana’s Downward Production Revision
- Ghana’s Cocoa Board has lowered its 2024–25 cocoa harvest forecast by 5% to 617,500 metric tons, citing adverse weather and crop yield challenges.
- This revision intensifies upward pressure on global cocoa prices, following a 23-year low production year in 2023–24.
Nigeria’s Cocoa Sector Expansion
- Nigeria’s cocoa sector is experiencing strong growth. Domestic cocoa prices surged by over 700% in 2024, while exports rose by 27% in January 2025, although gains were tempered by a strong U.S. dollar.
- Nigeria is aggressively pushing agricultural diversification, bolstered by a $40.5 million investment from British International Investment and JohnVents Group, aimed at improving production sustainability.
- However, the country continues to export primarily raw beans, missing significant value-add opportunities.
Global Cocoa Supply and Demand Challenges
- Global cocoa grinding activity has declined across Europe, Asia, and North America, reaching multi-year lows due to economic pressures and high cocoa prices.
- Major chocolate manufacturers like Hershey and Mondelez are adjusting cocoa usage strategies in response to cost pressures and shifting consumer preferences.
Cocoa Deficit Outlook
- The International Cocoa Organization has substantially increased its deficit projection for the 2023–24 season, marking the largest shortfall in over sixty years.
- Tight supply conditions and limited inventory replenishment continue to fuel cocoa market volatility.
Strategic Implications:
Ongoing Price Volatility
- Currency fluctuations, particularly the strong U.S. dollar, and declining grindings may temper short-term demand but are unlikely to ease underlying supply concerns in 2025.
Focus on Value Addition
- Countries like Nigeria face opportunities to expand into cocoa processing to capture greater economic value.
Corporate Adaptation
- Chocolate manufacturers are adapting recipes and portfolio strategies to maintain profitability amid record-high cocoa costs.
Agricultural Diversification and Investment
- Agricultural investments and initiatives promoting diversification in cocoa-producing nations will be critical for stabilizing future supply.
