This episode provides a structured overview of key developments shaping the global coffee market as of June 1, 2025, with updates from Colombia, Brazil, Vietnam, and the European Union.
- Colombia: The National Federation of Coffee Growers continues to implement a structured pricing model tied to New York Stock Exchange coffee prices, daily exchange rates, and Colombian quality premiums. As of May 29, a 125kg load of dry parchment coffee was priced at $2,791 COP. Defective coffee incurs significant price penalties, reinforcing a quality-driven production model that financially protects growers.
- Brazil: The 2025–26 season is forecast to bring strong Arabica output despite lingering weather concerns. However, a rapid Robusta harvest has led to sharp price declines—7.3% for Type 6 Arabica in São Paulo and 13% for Robusta in Espírito Santo. Despite falling prices, Brazil's large output continues to exert influence over global coffee pricing.
- Vietnam: While coffee export volumes declined 5.5% year-over-year, export revenues rose by 56%, reflecting high global prices. Domestic prices in the Central Highlands are now softening in line with international trends. A 20% yield loss due to drought highlights the vulnerability of supply to climatic factors. Ongoing investment in cultivation is expected to improve future output stability.
- European Union Regulations: The EU has categorized Brazilian coffee as a “medium-risk” commodity under its deforestation-free import regulations. This designation subjects Brazilian exporters to more stringent audit and compliance procedures compared to “low-risk” countries such as Vietnam and Kenya. Enhanced monitoring and traceability efforts will be essential for Brazilian coffee to maintain access to European markets.
