In this episode, the podcast delivers a concise overview of key developments in the global coffee market as of July 6, 2025.
- Brazil's coffee harvest is progressing slower than usual, with only 31% completed compared to 42% at this time last year. This delay, attributed to excessive rainfall affecting Arabica beans, has paradoxically helped ease drought concerns. Despite the slowdown, the USDA forecasts a minor 0.5% increase in Brazil's coffee production, reaching 65 million bags for the 2025-2026 season. However, exports have plummeted, with green coffee shipments dropping 36% year over year in May. These mixed signals contribute to bearish market fundamentals in Brazil.
- Vietnam, a leading Robusta producer, is facing severe challenges after a 20% production drop due to drought, resulting in its smallest crop in four years. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association has adjusted its forecast down to 26.5 million bags for 2024. Nonetheless, Vietnam achieved record export values of $4.7 billion in the first five months of the year, driven by high average export prices. The USDA projects a 6.9% rebound in Robusta production for the 2025-2026 season, although domestic and global prices remain under pressure.
- Globally, coffee production is projected to rise 2.5% to a historic 178.68 million bags, with Robusta output expected to grow by 7.9% and Arabica to decline by 1.7%. Ending stocks are forecasted to increase by 4.9%, reaching nearly 22.8 million bags. However, Volcafe warns of a widening Arabica deficit, now in its fifth consecutive year, deepening by 8.5 million bags.
- India's coffee sector is thriving, with exports rising 125% over eleven years to $1.8 billion for 2024-2025. The Coffee Board of India's efforts to promote sustainable, shade-grown, and value-added products have contributed to this growth. In contrast, Colombia faces production setbacks due to poor weather affecting the Mitaka crop. Forecasts for Colombian output have been downgraded, raising concerns about the global supply-demand balance.
