This episode presents a comprehensive overview of the global coffee market as of July 13, 2025.
- Brazil continues to face headwinds despite being the top producer of Arabica coffee. Recent U.S. tariff hikes have contributed to rising coffee prices. Compounding these issues is a delayed harvest, with only 40 percent completed by early July, compared to 52 percent at the same time last year. The USDA projects modest output growth, estimating 65 million bags for the season. However, adverse weather in key regions like Minas Gerais is driving price pressures. Brazilian green coffee exports declined sharply in May, down 36 percent year-over-year.
- Vietnam, meanwhile, is recovering from a 20 percent production drop in the 2023–24 crop year due to drought, which caused the lowest yields in four years. Despite this, exports rose 4.1 percent in the first half of 2025. Looking ahead, Vietnam anticipates a 6.9 percent rebound in production for 2025–26, reaching 31 million bags. While robust supply continues to suppress Robusta prices, a decline in inventory levels has provided some price relief.
- Globally, coffee production is expected to grow 2.5 percent, reaching a record 178.68 million bags for the 2025–26 period. Robusta production is forecast to rise by 7.9 percent, while Arabica is set to decline by 1.7 percent. This creates a complex supply environment, especially with Volcafe predicting a continued global Arabica deficit for a fifth consecutive year.
- Vietnam's market outlook is further supported by its classification as a low deforestation risk by the EU, enhancing its competitiveness. However, maintaining this status will require adherence to strict regulatory standards. Diversification strategies targeting Northeast Asia and more price-sensitive markets like India are expected to offer additional growth avenues.
