This episode highlights key developments in the global coffee market as of July 20, 2025.
- In Vietnam, domestic coffee prices in July ranged between VND 90,000 and VND 90,500 per kilogram, showing slight regional variation. The country recorded strong export performance in the first half of the year, shipping 953,900 tons worth $5.45 billion—almost matching the previous year’s total volume and value. However, Vietnam's coffee sector is facing growing pressure from stringent European Union regulations related to deforestation and traceability, which pose significant compliance challenges for small-scale and ethnically diverse producers.
- Brazil’s coffee market is experiencing downward price pressure, driven by a strong U.S. dollar and high export volumes. Rapid progress in the country's harvest has boosted global supply, while the potential implementation of a 50 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee has introduced market uncertainty. If imposed, such tariffs could redirect Brazil’s export flows, disrupting international market distributions. Despite these challenges, Brazil generated $14.73 billion in coffee export revenue during the 2024–2025 cycle.
- Globally, coffee prices have weakened across both Arabica and Robusta varieties. A 2.5 percent increase in global production is forecast for the 2025–2026 season, primarily due to a surge in Robusta output. This raises concerns about market overcapacity and continued price declines. Volatility is further fueled by shifting weather patterns in Brazil, policy threats such as U.S. tariffs, and rapid harvesting progress.
- In summary, the global coffee market is navigating complex dynamics: Vietnam sustains strong exports amid tightening EU compliance rules, Brazil faces competitive and regulatory pressures despite record earnings, and overall production growth may influence future pricing trends.
