This episode explores the global coffee market as of July 27, 2025.
- Brazil’s coffee harvest is progressing rapidly, with 77% completed by mid-July, outpacing both the previous year and the five-year average. Robusta harvesting is nearly finished at 93%, while Arabica stands at 67%. This accelerated pace signals a strong near-term supply. Major forecasting agencies confirm expectations for a global record crop of 178.68 million bags for the 2025–2026 season, with Robusta production leading. While earlier frost concerns temporarily elevated prices, robust inventories and continuous harvesting have kept pricing stable.
- However, Brazil faces a new challenge: a 50% tariff on coffee imports into the United States. Coupled with logistical bottlenecks at key ports like Santos and Rio de Janeiro, these factors threaten Brazil's export reliability and financial outcomes, emphasizing the need for infrastructure upgrades.
- In Vietnam, coffee production declined 20% during the 2023–2024 crop year due to drought, reaching its lowest yield in four years. Yet, the 2025–2026 season shows promise, with output forecasted to rebound to 31 million bags. Although 2024 exports dropped 17.1%, the first half of 2025 has already seen a 4.1% year-on-year increase. Vietnam is strengthening its position in the Robusta segment through diversification and international promotion.
- Overall, despite intermittent price surges driven by climate concerns in Brazil and Vietnam, the coffee market is characterized by ample supply, significant carryover stocks, and strong producer positioning. Shifts in consumption habits, trade diversification, and geopolitical changes—including tariffs and trade policy reforms—are shaping the global coffee landscape. Each producing country navigates unique challenges, but all operate within a tightly interlinked and dynamically evolving market.
