This episode delivers a focused overview of the global coffee market as of August 3, 2025.
- Vietnam's coffee industry continues to excel, with exports reaching $5.69 billion by mid-July 2025, a 66.4 percent increase year over year. Export volumes rose to 1 million tons, up 6.4 percent. This growth is driven by high global coffee prices and a strategic push toward value-added and specialty coffee products. The average export price per ton has climbed to $5,705, a 59 percent increase. Traditional markets such as Germany, Italy, and Spain remain key importers, while emerging markets including Algeria and Mexico are expanding their purchases. Vietnam’s focus on specialty coffee has helped strengthen its position in premium markets, diversify its product range, and build resilience against global price volatility. Domestically, green coffee prices are fluctuating due to speculative trading and weather concerns in major producing regions like Brazil.
- In Brazil, the 2025–2026 coffee harvest is progressing efficiently, with 84 percent completion and Robusta nearing its end. However, June exports dropped 31 percent due to port congestion and pricing uncertainties. Domestic prices have fallen amid expectations of a 50 percent U.S. import tariff on Brazilian coffee starting in August, prompting accelerated shipments. Despite these challenges, Brazil’s coffee production remains vital, with a gross value projected at BRL 124.25 billion. The sector is also advancing sustainability efforts, reducing chemical use and improving coffee quality through innovative practices.
- Globally, coffee production for the season is forecast to reach 178.7 million 60-kilogram bags, a 2.5 percent year-over-year increase. This is mainly due to a 7.9 percent rebound in Robusta production, while Arabica output is expected to decline by 1.7 percent. Despite record production, the Arabica segment faces an 8.5 million bag deficit, continuing a five-year trend of structural shortfalls. Consumption patterns in Europe, Asia, Oceania, and North America are increasingly shaping strategic decisions among producers and exporters.
