This episode delivers a focused update on the global coffee market for the week of August 10, 2025.
- In Brazil, the sector faces potential headwinds from a proposed 50 percent export tariff under former President Trump, a measure that could curb U.S. sales and swell domestic inventories. Harvest progress has reached 74 percent overall and 85 percent for Arabica, but prices remain under pressure. Minas Gerais, the country’s leading Arabica-growing region, has received only 31 percent of its average rainfall, boosting prices but reducing yields. Brazil’s green coffee exports fell 31 percent year-on-year in June, reflecting ample domestic supply and ongoing market strain.
- Vietnam is grappling with a 20 percent production decline from last year due to severe drought, primarily impacting Robusta output. Exports dropped 17.1 percent to 1.35 million metric tons, while the European Union’s new anti-deforestation regulation poses significant compliance challenges. With the EU accounting for nearly 40 percent of Vietnam’s coffee exports, the sector faces potential market access issues unless it adapts to stringent traceability and legal documentation standards.
- In contrast, Ethiopia’s coffee industry is thriving. Export revenues hit $2.24 billion in the first eleven months of the fiscal year, exceeding targets by 46 percent with 409,600 tons exported. Growth has been supported by expanded production and stronger penetration into markets including Germany, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.
- Globally, the USDA forecasts record coffee production of 178.68 million bags for 2025–26, a 2.5 percent increase. Robusta output is expected to rise 7.9 percent, while Arabica production is projected to fall 1.7 percent, a shift that could tighten certain market segments. Recent price softness has been tied to surplus expectations, but looming regulatory changes, potential Brazilian tariffs, and weather-related setbacks in key producing nations may exert greater influence on future pricing. These evolving conditions highlight the need for adaptive export strategies to maintain market stability and access.
