This episode delivers an in-depth overview of the global coffee market.
- Brazil is facing severe weather disruptions, with drought and frost significantly affecting Arabica coffee production across Minas Gerais, São Paulo, and Espírito Santo. Compounding these challenges, the United States has imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee, resulting in a 28% year-over-year decline in green coffee exports as of July. Although the 2025–26 harvest is nearly complete, logistical delays at northern ports remain problematic.
- Vietnam's coffee output is also under pressure due to prolonged dry conditions in critical regions like the Central Highlands and Jack Laak. The production forecast has been revised down to 26.5 million bags. While exports rose 7.6% from January to July, domestic prices remain elevated, and future yields may decline if dry weather persists.
- Colombia reports below-average rainfall in regions such as Guela and Caldas, potentially reducing the exportable surplus. Nonetheless, Fetekaf has maintained its production forecasts and is focusing on building climate resilience. In the United States, coffee roasters are pivoting toward Central American sources in response to Brazilian tariffs, facing new hurdles like contract delays and higher freight costs.
- Meanwhile, ICE-certified stock depletion is contributing to speculative market pressure. Indonesia is experiencing low bean weight and uneven ripening due to erratic rainfall in Sumatra and Sulawesi, which may constrain third-quarter exports. Ethiopia's coffee shipments are slowing as delayed rains and high local prices intersect with EU compliance regulations, disrupting delivery timelines.
- The episode underscores the intricate interplay between climate events, international trade policies, and logistical challenges that are collectively shaping global coffee prices and availability.
