This episode presents a thorough review of the global coffee market as of September 7, 2025.
- Brazil’s coffee market is navigating both favorable and challenging developments. Recent rainfall has eased drought fears, prompting profit-taking after August’s price rally. However, nearing completion of the harvest (94.9 percent by August) is putting downward pressure on prices. Further declines are influenced by a weaker Brazilian real, which has encouraged increased export activity. At the same time, Arabica inventories have reached new lows, falling to 686,163 bags as of September 3, a notable drop from early 2024 levels. Complicating matters, the United States has imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazilian coffee imports, prompting U.S. buyers to cancel orders. This policy has led to a 28 percent year-over-year drop in green coffee exports in July, down to 2.4 million bags.
- Despite these pressures, tight global supply conditions are providing some price support. Brazil’s production is forecast to rise, but stockpiles remain lean. Vietnam, the leading Robusta producer, is experiencing a 20 percent decline in output due to drought, reducing 2023–24 production to 1.47 million metric tons—the lowest in four years. Though exports increased earlier in the year, ongoing supply concerns are keeping Robusta prices elevated.
- In the United States, the 50 percent tariff on Brazilian imports has disrupted trade flows, yet domestic market trends are mixed: Robusta prices have dipped slightly, while Arabica prices are on the rise. This divergence reflects differences in supply conditions, harvest timing, and possibly shifting consumer demand.
- Globally, the coffee market remains volatile. The USDA projects a record-high coffee harvest for the 2025–26 cycle, but global inventories are tight. Both Robusta and Arabica prices are trending upward due to sustained demand and constrained supply, with weather conditions, economic pressures, and regulatory changes continuing to shape the competitive landscape.
