This episode explores the shifting dynamics of the global coffee market.
- In Brazil, initial optimism driven by forecasts of heavy rainfall in Minas Gerais led to expectations of higher yields and a temporary drop in Arabica prices. However, a sudden shift occurred following the United States’ imposition of 50% tariffs on Brazilian coffee imports, which reduced shipments and tightened iced coffee inventories. This policy shift contributed to upward pressure on prices amid growing concerns about supply constraints. Conab's revised estimates forecast a 4.9% reduction in the 2025 Arabica harvest to 35.2 million bags and a 0.9% drop in total coffee production to 55.2 million bags. Additionally, La Niña-related drought risks are casting uncertainty over the 2026–2027 crop outlook.
- Vietnam’s coffee sector is experiencing robust growth. Robusta production for 2025–2026 is expected to rise by 6% to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), marking the highest output in four years. This increased supply is likely to place downward pressure on Robusta prices. Vietnam's coffee exports also grew by 10.9% from January to September 2025, further influencing global pricing trends.
- According to the USDA, global coffee production for 2025–2026 is projected to increase by 2.5%, reaching a record 178.68 million bags. This includes a 7.9% increase in Robusta output, although Arabica production is expected to decline. Despite ample overall supply, Volcafe has flagged a looming Arabica deficit, highlighting divergent trends between the two main coffee varieties.
