This episode examines key developments in the global coffee market.
- In Brazil, Arabica production has declined by 11.2% to 35.2 million bags, while Robusta output surged 37.2% to 20.1 million bags due to improved rainfall. Despite these shifts, total coffee exports fell by 18.4%, although revenues increased by 11.1% driven by higher global prices. A 50% tariff imposed by the United States on specialty coffee has slashed exports in this segment by 70%, pushing producers like Fazenda Komotzium to seek alternative markets. Domestically, coffee consumption dropped 24% following a 70% price hike since 2023, reflecting economic strain and changing consumer behavior. Looking ahead, uncertain rainfall threatens Arabica yields, though Robusta production is expected to remain strong due to improved agricultural practices.
- Vietnam continues its rapid ascent in the coffee sector, with a 61.4% year-on-year rise in export revenues totaling $6.98 billion from 1.23 million tons of mostly Robusta beans. Production forecasts for 2025–2026 have been raised by 10%, and high-value processed coffee exports have jumped 63.5%. The EU remains Vietnam’s primary buyer, accounting for over 63% of its exports. While Vietnam is gaining global prominence, it still faces challenges in quality standardization and establishing internationally recognized brands.
- Globally, the coffee market is grappling with geopolitical disruptions and climate concerns, potentially intensified by La Niña effects. Coffee exports grew marginally by 0.2%, but certified Arabica stocks have dropped to their lowest levels in 18 months. Brazil and Vietnam remain central to global supply stability, even as policy changes and environmental volatility shape market dynamics.
- Colombia is also showing signs of output growth, presenting future export potential. However, trade accessibility remains a concern due to fluctuating international policies.
