This episode outlines key developments in the global coffee market as of November 9, 2025.
- Brazil’s Arabica coffee output faces mounting pressure due to adverse weather conditions. In Minas Gerais, the top Arabica-producing region, rainfall in October reached only 33.4 millimeters, about 75% of the historical average, following an even drier period earlier in the season. This shortfall threatens the 2026-2027 crop, as insufficient rainfall disrupts flowering and fruit set. The likelihood of a La Niña event, now elevated by NOAA forecasts, could further intensify the dry conditions. As a result, Brazil’s national food supply agency has revised its 2025 Arabica production forecast down to 35.2 million bags from an earlier estimate of 37 million.
- In addition to weather setbacks, Brazil’s coffee exports to the United States have been hit by steep tariffs, contributing to declining inventories in intercontinental exchange warehouses. Speculation around a potential easing of these tariffs could provide some market relief if implemented.
- Vietnam’s Robusta coffee sector is under threat from Typhoon Kalmeghi, which endangers southern production zones. Despite this, exports have risen 10.9% year-on-year to 1.23 million metric tons in 2025. The Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association projects a 6% increase in 2025-2026 output, potentially reaching 1.76 million metric tons, the highest in four years, assuming no further severe weather disruptions. Vietnam's expanding production continues to influence global Robusta prices.
- Globally, the United States Department of Agriculture anticipates a 2.5% increase in total coffee output for the current cycle, with production reaching a record 178.68 million bags. While Arabica output is expected to decline by 1.7%, Robusta production is forecasted to grow by 7.9%, potentially balancing overall supply. Global ending stocks are projected to rise by 4.9%, suggesting a relatively stable supply outlook, contingent on weather and trade policy developments.
