This episode offers a thorough overview of the global coffee market as of November 16, 2025.
- In Brazil, the world’s top coffee producer, adverse weather associated with La Niña has led CONAB to revise the 2025 Arabica crop downward by 4.9 percent to 35.2 million bags. Despite this setback, a strong rebound is forecast, with Stonex projecting total output to rise by 29 percent to 70.7 million bags in the next harvest, of which 47.2 million are expected from Arabica varieties. Potential tariff reductions in the United States could influence Brazilian export flows and reshape trade dynamics, particularly since tariffs have previously supported U.S. domestic prices by limiting imports.
- Vietnam is also poised for expansion, with coffee exports growing 13.4 percent year over year from January to October, totaling 1.31 million metric tons. Looking ahead, the country’s 2025–2026 output is expected to grow by 6 to 10 percent, contingent on continued favorable conditions. This projected growth in Robusta supply could increase global downward pricing pressure.
- In the United States, the market remains sensitive to regulatory shifts. Speculation about cutting tariffs on Brazilian coffee has drawn attention, as U.S. supply chains rely heavily on Brazil. Any tariff changes would significantly affect pricing and inventory strategies, especially with ongoing constraints in Brazilian exports already impacting stock levels.
- Globally, coffee production is projected to reach a record 178.68 million bags for the 2025–2026 cycle, driven by increased Robusta production in both Brazil and Vietnam. While Arabica output is expected to dip slightly, overall supply will rise. However, this outlook faces risks from climate volatility tied to La Niña and from trade uncertainties in major markets such as the United States, which could disrupt pricing stability and export strategies.
