This episode covers key shifts in the global coffee market.
- In Brazil, Arabica futures found support amid low inventory levels and a 40 percent U.S. tariff on Brazilian coffee, which caused a 52 percent year-over-year decline in exports to the United States from August to October. This short-term scarcity is supporting speculative price movements. However, Stonex projects Brazil’s 2026–2027 crop will reach 70.7 million bags, a 29 percent increase, fueled by favorable weather in key growing regions like Minas Gerais. This expected supply growth may exert downward pressure on prices moving forward.
- Vietnam’s coffee sector continues to expand, with Robusta exports rising 13.4 percent year to date, totaling 1.31 million metric tons. Production for the 2025–2026 season is forecasted to increase by 6 percent, potentially reaching a 10 percent gain with favorable weather, which could ease global supply constraints and further moderate prices.
- In the United States, tariff policy continues to shape market dynamics. While a 10 percent reciprocal tariff on various commodities has been lifted, the 40 percent national security tariff on Brazilian coffee remains in place, restricting imports and influencing futures pricing. A change in this policy could significantly alter trade flows.
- Colombia, by contrast, has benefited from recent tariff changes. The removal of reciprocal tariffs on Colombian coffee has boosted its competitive edge, supporting a three-decade high in output at 14.8 million bags, up 17 percent year over year. This has strengthened Colombia's market share in the United States and globally.
- Despite current inventory tightness, the global coffee market is expected to stabilize. A 2.5 percent rise in overall production for the 2025–2026 season, alongside increasing stock levels, may counterbalance short-term supply limitations and help moderate speculative price volatility.
