This episode highlights current developments and market forecasts in the global coffee sector.
- In Brazil, coffee production forecasts for 2025 show notable upward revisions. Conab increased its estimate by 2.4 percent to 56.54 million bags, while Stonex projects a much larger output of 70.7 million bags, driven by a 29 percent rise in Arabica production, now expected at 47.2 million bags. Despite these gains, Brazil’s November green coffee exports dropped by 27 percent year over year, totaling 3.3 million bags. Severe dryness in key areas like Minas Gerais poses a threat to Arabica crop development and flowering.
- Vietnam’s coffee sector continues its strong performance, with robusta output for 2025–26 revised upward to 1.76 million metric tons (29.4 million bags), marking a 6 percent increase and a four-year high. This growth aligns with a 39 percent surge in November exports and a 14.8 percent year-to-date export increase. The rise in supply is exerting downward pressure on global robusta prices.
- Regulatory developments have also influenced market sentiment. The European Union’s decision to delay its deforestation regulation has temporarily eased compliance pressures for South American and Southeast Asian exporters, supporting ongoing supply flows and contributing to a more bearish market outlook.
- On a global scale, the United States Department of Agriculture forecasts a 2.5 percent increase in total coffee production for 2025–26, reaching 178.68 million bags. Ending stocks are projected to rise by 4.9 percent. However, global exports have dipped slightly by 0.3 percent year over year, indicating a disconnect between production growth and trade activity. Currency fluctuations, especially involving the Brazilian real, add further complexity to export incentives and pricing strategies.
