This episode highlights significant developments in the global maize market.
- The USDA’s quarterly report indicates U.S. maize stocks are projected to open 5 million tons above previous expectations for the 2025–2026 business year. Stable production and demand, coupled with uncertainty from a government shutdown, have led markets to rely heavily on private yield data, contributing to price volatility on the Chicago Board of Trade. Despite strong U.S. harvests and abundant stocks, negotiations with China have not yet resulted in substantial market shifts, though increased supply has positively influenced ethanol output and biofuel economics.
- China’s maize production for the 2025–2026 season is estimated at 298 million tons, reflecting continued output growth. As a result, import projections have been reduced to 7 million tons, in line with the government’s goal of agricultural self-sufficiency. With domestic capacities exceeding 130 million tons, maize remains essential for feed and industrial use.
- In Ukraine, maize exports in September reached their lowest level since 2021, reflecting broader declines across the grain market. Total annual grain exports are down by one third, heavily impacted by ongoing political and economic instability. In Argentina, exchange rate volatility tied to regional elections has disrupted maize export activity, leaving total exports at 24.5 million tons, with producers delaying sales until after electoral results.
- Brazil anticipates a 14% increase in maize-based ethanol production in 2025–2026, reaching nearly 9 billion liters. This shift is partially driven by reduced sugarcane ethanol output, particularly in Parana, signaling a strategic pivot in Brazil’s biofuel sector. In India, maize farmers in Telangana are facing depressed prices and weak government procurement, leaving them vulnerable to private traders and financial pressure despite large harvests.
- Russia has tripled its corn exports to China year-on-year, surpassing Brazil and the U.S. as China’s leading supplier. This reinforces Russia’s growing influence in the global maize trade. Domestic measures such as export duties and production quotas highlight strategic government control over agricultural exports.
