This week’s maize market report.
- The USDA projects U.S. maize yields to remain strong at 186 bushels per acre for 2025, with total production forecast at 425.5 million tons. Despite localized pest pressures in Ohio and Indiana, gains in other states have stabilized the national outlook. U.S. exports are expected to reach 78.1 million tons, supporting ending stock estimates of 54.7 million tons.
- In China, maize output is anticipated to hit a record 300 million tons, surpassing USDA forecasts. Despite high domestic production, reduced import levels are expected to pressure inventories and influence regional trade flows.
- Argentina’s maize exports remain sluggish, creating opportunities for other exporters. However, planting continues without major disruption, even after flooding in Buenos Aires, suggesting a normal harvest timeline into March 2026. Brazil faces headwinds from limited credit access and currency challenges, impacting export competitiveness. While aiming for 41 million tons in maize exports, only 34.1 million tons have been shipped so far. Unfavorable market conditions could affect Brazil's 2026 planting intentions.
- Russia's Primorsky territory plans to expand maize planting to 130,000 hectares by 2026, supported by targeted seed procurement to enhance output. In India’s Karnataka region, declining maize availability has reduced ethanol procurement rates, prompting government intervention to stabilize the sector.
- South Africa expects a 6 percent drop in maize production to 16 million tons, though planted area will remain steady at 3 million hectares. The country aims to export 2.2 million tons while ensuring sufficient regional supply. Ukraine continues to struggle with delayed harvesting due to high moisture content, with a third of the crop still unharvested. Despite slight price increases, Ukraine’s export capacity remains constrained, with projections capped at 5 million tons due to infrastructure damage and ongoing conflict.
