This episode presents a comprehensive update on the global wheat market as of July 6, 2025.
- Ukraine has commenced its winter wheat harvest in Odessa, Mykolaiv, and Kherson, reporting low early yields of around 2.1 to 2.15 tons per hectare. There is cautious optimism for improved output contingent on stable weather. Wheat prices, currently at $210 per ton, are expected to climb to $230–$240 by fall, and potentially reach $250–$260 per ton by early 2026. This forecast is bolstered by challenges in other major exporting countries, including the United States.
- In Russia, the Ministry of Agriculture forecasts a total grain harvest of 135 million tons, with wheat comprising approximately 90 million tons. However, heavy rainfall in key regions has delayed harvesting, while drought in southern areas like Rostov has impacted yields. Russia has already used 83% of its wheat export quota, constrained by declining harvest volumes and noncompetitive international prices.
- Kazakhstan is on track for a record 11.45 million tons of wheat and flour exports this year, supported by a 41% year-over-year rise in exports over the past nine months. This growth has been driven by increased supplies of wheat and feed meal. Conversely, a sharp drop in imports from Afghanistan and Turkmenistan signals shifting trade dynamics.
- Southern Brazil is experiencing an oversupply, delaying wheat planting in regions such as Rio Grande do Sul, where only 40% of the planned area has been sown. Despite this, market prices remain low but stable due to ample supply. Selective purchasing in Santa Catarina, driven by quality preferences, is also shaping market behavior.
- China faces a significant production shortfall, with the wheat harvest projected to be the lowest since 2018 due to drought and extreme heat in provinces like Shanxi and Guangxi. This situation has led to major crop losses and heightened concerns about national food security.
- In contrast, Serbia anticipates a strong wheat harvest of 3.605 million tons, marking a 24.3% increase over last year. This growth reflects enhanced yields and expanded cultivation, suggesting positive momentum in the country's agricultural development.
