This episode offers a comprehensive overview of the global canola and rapeseed markets for the week ending May 4, 2025, focusing on export performance, domestic demand developments, trade policy impacts, and international supply chain shifts.
- Canada: Canadian canola exports surged by 70%, reaching 6.87 million tonnes by week 34 of the 2024/25 marketing year. This sharp rise occurs despite strained trade relations, including China’s 100% tariff on Canadian canola oil and meal, and ongoing anti-dumping investigations. U.S. tariff proposals excluded canola, providing some relief. Domestically, projects like Imperial Oil’s $720 million renewable diesel facility in Alberta are expected to absorb approximately 1 million tonnes of canola oil annually, partially offsetting reduced export avenues. The USDA projects Canadian canola production to rise to 18.46 million tonnes in 2025/26, supported by expanded crushing capacity.
- Farmer Sentiment: Despite strong export figures, Canadian farmer sentiment remains cautious due to global trade uncertainties and concerns over insufficient governmental support in managing increasing trade-related costs.
- China: China has shifted its oilseed import strategy in response to tariffs on Canadian products. Within three weeks, the country imported 52,000 tonnes of Indian rapeseed meal, taking advantage of lower prices and soft domestic demand. Concurrently, Russia’s rapeseed oil exports to China rose by 27.8% in Q1 2025, although seed exports declined due to new Russian duties.
- Russia: The Russian rapeseed sector shows mixed trends. The Orel region expanded sown areas after a record harvest, while the Bryansk region faces drought-related challenges. Export volumes are impacted by a 30% duty on rapeseed seed, yet oil exports remain strong. Russia continues to broaden its market outreach beyond China, supported by government policies and tariff quota mechanisms.
- Europe and India: Europe’s production outlook is mixed due to weather and pest issues, while India is emerging as a competitive supplier in the rapeseed meal market. These trends reflect shifting trade flows and emerging supply chain dynamics across the global oilseed complex.
