This episode provides an in-depth look at the global canola market as of August 3, 2025.
- Russia is on track for a record canola harvest, with nearly 3 million hectares sown in 2025, a 5.5 percent increase from the previous year. Production is expected to reach between 5.2 and 6 million tons, up from 4.7 million tons in 2024. High yields in regions like Stavropol and the Volga offset localized weather setbacks. Processing dominates domestic use, accounting for 96.6 percent of consumption in 2024–2025, with rapeseed oil and animal feed products leading demand. Russia has significantly expanded its rapeseed oil exports, particularly to China, supported by increased processing capabilities now reaching 135,000 tons per month. However, a 30 percent export duty in place through August 2026 has sharply reduced raw canola exports to China, exposing risks tied to limited market diversification.
- Canada faces several challenges including political tensions with the United States and growing competition from Australia in China. These issues have driven an 8.9 percent drop in canola futures within a week. May’s canola crush volume dropped to an 11-month low of 831,000 tons, 10 percent below the previous year. Tightened domestic stocks and China’s continued 100 percent import tariff on Canadian canola meal exacerbate the situation. Weather conditions have shown some improvement in the Prairies, potentially stabilizing yields.
- Australia is reentering the Chinese market after a period of restricted access, potentially reshaping trade dynamics long dominated by Canada. Despite renewed export momentum, domestic production for 2025–2026 is forecast at 5.7 million tons due to drought impacts. Nonetheless, export volumes remain robust, reflecting sustained global demand.
- In the European Union, production forecasts have increased to 20 million tons, driven by gains in France, Germany, and Romania. However, processing activity has slowed to a three-year low because of weak crush margins and declining biodiesel demand. The influx of low-cost South American soymeal is further reducing demand for canola meal, particularly in Germany’s feed sector.
- Ukraine anticipates its lowest canola output in four years, projected between 2.7 and 2.8 million tons due to adverse weather and delayed harvests. A newly imposed 10 percent export duty, intended to boost domestic processing, is expected to pressure local markets and prices. Exports have already declined 15 percent year over year, with further reductions anticipated.
- Overall, global canola production and trade are navigating a complex landscape. Russia leads in production growth, Canada contends with geopolitical and trade disruptions, Australia is strategically repositioning in the Chinese market, and the EU and Ukraine face challenges related to processing economics and environmental conditions. Each market is adapting uniquely as 2025 progresses.
