This episode examines recent movements in the global canola market for the week of August 10, 2025
- In Canada, canola prices faced downward pressure in early August due to speculative long liquidation, resulting in declines for ICE futures contracts. While the November contract showed technical bearish signals, underlying market fundamentals remain robust. Strong demand, particularly from the United States, has driven record-high processing volumes for the 2024–25 marketing year, reaching 11.3 million tons. This resilience contrasts with declines in soybean processing and has been supported by recent beneficial rainfall in Saskatchewan and Alberta, improving crop prospects in those provinces.
- In Russia, rapeseed production is encountering significant headwinds from adverse weather and geopolitical tensions that are disrupting trade and input supply chains. Industry estimates suggest the 2025 harvest could reach up to 5 million tons if these challenges are mitigated. As of August 1, only 817,000 tons had been harvested, marking a year-on-year decline. However, improved yields have been recorded in the Central, North Caucasian, and Volga districts, and expanded sowing areas indicate potential for future growth in production.
- The developments in both Canada and Russia underscore the complex mix of environmental, economic, and political factors influencing the canola and rapeseed sectors. These dynamics reinforce the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptive strategies in major production regions.
