This episode offers a focused update on global canola market developments.
- Canada reported record-breaking production in 2025, with wheat output rising 11% to 40 million tons and rapeseed production climbing 13% to 21.8 million tons. The Canadian prairies played a pivotal role in this success, aided by late-season rainfall that offset early drought conditions. Eastern provinces faced challenges with heat and low rainfall, though timely harvests prevented major losses. Domestic canola crushing capacity rebounded to approximately 90% following a decline, a crucial development following China’s imposition of a 100% tariff on Canadian canola exports in March 2025. The tariff has driven a stronger focus on domestic processing, with potential for further capacity expansion amid rising biofuel demand. However, concerns remain about market distortions due to imported low-carbon waste feedstocks used in blending.
- In Bulgaria, canola production recovered to about 290,000 metric tons following two years of reduced harvest area. This recovery showcases the adaptability of Bulgarian agriculture, though sunflower production remained flat at 1.5 million tons. Bulgaria continues to rely heavily on imports, especially of sunflower seed flour, though rising domestic canola output may benefit local processors.
- Ukraine implemented a 10% export duty on soybeans and rapeseed, exempting producers who export their own goods. Revenue from this duty will support domestic agricultural processing, infrastructure, and war risk mitigation. These measures aim to strengthen internal capabilities amid ongoing conflict.
- Australia’s government revised its 2025 crop forecasts significantly upward. Canola output is projected at 7.2 million tons, bolstered by excellent growing conditions in Western Australia and Queensland. However, parts of New South Wales suffered from below-average rainfall, tempering yields in those areas.
- India’s edible oil import strategy shifted toward cost-effective options, with palm oil imports rising 4.6%. In contrast, sunflower oil imports fell to a two-year low in November, and total edible oil imports declined by 11.5%. This shift underscores Indian buyers’ price sensitivity and the resulting impact on global edible oil trade flows.
