This episode delivers an in-depth review of the global palm oil market as of July 27, 2025.
- Malaysia is set for a rise in palm oil output, with projections of 19.4 million tons by the 2025–2026 period. This growth is driven by favorable weather and expanded plantation areas totaling 5.15 million hectares. Exports are expected to climb to 16 million tons. However, increased supply and competition from alternative edible oils have pushed prices to their lowest since August 2024.
- Palm kernel oil production in Malaysia is forecasted to reach 2.11 million tons, with domestic consumption projected at 1.24 million tons. Imports are expected to decline while exports increase, indicating a shift in market dynamics.
- In Indonesia, wildfires in Sumatra during a critical harvest period pose a risk to production, although plantations in key areas like Riau remain unaffected. The Indonesian Palm Oil Association, alongside community and government support, is responding to these challenges. Meanwhile, the government's push for a B50 biodiesel blend raises concerns over feedstock sufficiency and environmental implications, potentially affecting both exports and emissions targets.
- Nigeria is advancing its palm oil sector through the National Palm Oil Traceability System, designed to enhance product quality, sustainability, and competitiveness—especially for smallholder farmers. This move is expected to bolster Nigeria’s global market position.
- In Europe, palm oil imports have fallen by 20% year-over-year, totaling 2.8 million tons from July 2024 to June 2025. Despite the decline, the Netherlands and Italy continue as major importers. Policy shifts across the EU, including exclusions of palm oil-based biofuels from national quotas, are key contributors to the downward trend.
- India is ramping up its reliance on Malaysian palm oil, especially for germinated seeds, as part of a broader strategy to expand domestic production. Supported by the National Mission on Edible Oils, India is working with Malaysia to improve planting material quality and reduce import dependence, aiming to strengthen its agricultural self-sufficiency.
- Together, these trends outline a market under pressure from both supply growth and regulatory shifts, shaping the trajectory of global palm oil trade and pricing.
