This episode explores the resilience and shifting dynamics of the global palm oil market.
- Malaysia continues to show stability in its palm oil exports, shipping 191,231 tons to the United States in 2024—just 1.1 percent of its total exports—highlighting a limited dependency on U.S. markets. Government initiatives, including support for smallholders and efforts to combat diseases like Ganoderma stem rot, reinforce Malaysia’s market position. These strategies aim to sustain competitiveness amid global trade uncertainty through sustainability and market diversification.
- Indonesia is preparing for substantial growth in crude palm oil output, projecting an increase from 48.2 million tons in 2024 to 60 million tons by 2030. This expansion is driven by rising demand in food, biofuel, and oleochemical sectors. To support this growth, investments are being made in workforce development and plantation rejuvenation to improve productivity and yields.
- Colombia and Guatemala, ranked fourth and sixth in global palm oil production respectively, are penetrating the Indian market with competitively priced exports. This strategic move, motivated by surplus production, may reshape traditional market dynamics and influence Malaysian futures. Despite high freight costs and a 45-day transit time, these suppliers remain attractive due to their lower landing prices.
- India’s palm oil demand remains strong, bolstered by seasonal consumption increases. The shift to new suppliers could alter established trade patterns and affect pricing trends. Meanwhile, Malaysian futures have experienced volatility, dipping but partially recovering on the strength of recent export data. Prices are expected to remain above RM4,300 per ton, supported by constrained supply forecasts and higher biodiesel demand, which is also reducing soybean availability.
