Latest updates and trends in the global canola market, with insights into key regions including Russia, China, India, Australia, and Ukraine from CropGPT
Russia: Rostov and Pskov Regions
- Rostov Region:
- Rapeseed planting expanded by 22% in 2024, covering 28.6 thousand hectares.
- Local challenges include climate impacts on crop heat intolerance and winter freeze vulnerability.
- Despite a government export ban extended until 2024, local processing in Krasnodar mitigates the impact.
- Pskov Region:
- An eight-fold increase in rapeseed yield over the last twenty years, revitalizing 200,000 hectares of unused land.
- New processing facilities launched:
- PskovAgroInvest LLC: 5,000 tons annual capacity.
- Svoe in Velikiye Luki: 3,000 tons annual capacity.
China
- Intensified Production:
- Promoting winter variant cultivation using idle winter land.
- New "segmented harvesting" method: trimming plants when 80% yellow, drying on-field before threshing.
- Boosts average yield by 30-50 kg per mu, enhancing net income by over 100 yuan per mu.
- National Efforts:
- Aimed at reducing dependency on imports by cultivating more domestic crops.
India
- Projected Increase:
- Rapeseed output expected to rise by 7.5% to 11.5 million tonnes in 2024.
- Driven by historical highs in wintersown oilseed planting and a 7.4% increase in sown area.
- Weather Constraints:
- Adverse weather conditions, including frost and heatwaves, constrain yields.
- Economic Importance:
- Crucial for reducing dependency on expensive imported vegetable oils.
Australia
- Output Reduction:
- Significant reduction in canola output due to persistent drought conditions, particularly in the western and southern regions.
- Farmers are switching to wheat and barley, less reliant on early sowing.
- Canola area projected to decrease by 6% to 3.1 million hectares.
- Production potentially falling 5% from the previous year to about 5.4 million metric tons.
- Hope for Improvement:
- Dependent on sufficient rainfall in the coming months.
Global Update on Ukraine
- Price Rise:
- Significant price rise expected due to frost damage in May and an uptick in exchange quotations.
- Tight competition between exporters and processors predicted.
- Market shift driven by natural calamities and lower harvest projections, potentially driving prices over 500 euros per ton.
