Podcast Episode Summary: Global Cocoa Market Update for July 7, 2024
- Deficit Projections:
- Pierre Andurand forecasts a deficit of 650,000 to 700,000 tons this season, largely due to depleted reserves.
- The International Cocoa Organization estimates a 439,000-ton deficit; Marex projects a 475,000-ton deficit.
- Cocoa Inventory Decline:
- ICE-monitored cocoa stocks in U.S. ports reach a three-year low at 3,180,517 bags.
- Ivory Coast shipments from October to June fall by 29%, with 2023/24 production predicted to drop to an eight-year low of 1.75 million metric tons.
- Production Shortfalls:
- Ghana produced only 500,000 tons of an 800,000-ton contract, delaying the remainder to the next season.
- Ecuador's new plantations may support global supply, though risks remain with continued crop declines in the Ivory Coast.
- Future Supply & Price Expectations:
- Marex projects a surplus of 303,000 metric tons for the 2024-25 season, expected to ease the current shortage.
- Ivory Coast’s 2024/25 harvest is projected to increase to two million metric tons.
- Consumer Impact:
- Nestlé anticipates lower chocolate sales as higher cocoa prices push manufacturers to raise prices.
- Marex forecasts weak cocoa demand growth, as high prices could dampen consumer purchases.
- Ghana's Production Rebound:
- Ghana’s cocoa regulator predicts a recovery to 700,000 metric tons in 2024/25, up from 425,000 metric tons in 2023/24, aided by improved weather.
- Price Decline & Market Sentiment:
- Cocoa prices have dropped over 30% since April, driven by favorable weather in West Africa.
- New York cocoa futures fell by 5.6% and London futures by 10.3% on Thursday.
- Hedge Fund Activity:
- Hedge funds reduce bullish bets, with net long positions in New York falling from 70,661 in January to 25,675 by June 18, suggesting a bearish shift.
For in-depth insights, visit CropGPT for detailed reports on cocoa market trends, weather data, and industry analysis.
