In this episode of Saturday vs Sunday, John Barban shines a spotlight on a player who’s been strangely overlooked in all the post-draft drama: Cam Ward. Despite being the #1 overall pick, Ward’s story has been drowned out by nonstop coverage of Shedeur Sanders’ draft slide. But John argues that Ward — not Sanders — is the real story of the 2025 NFL Draft.John dives into Ward’s incredible underdog journey, tracing his path from a zero-star high school recruit to Incarnate Word, then to Washington State, and finally to Miami as a graduate transfer. After an impressive Heisman-finalist season at Miami, Ward worked his way into becoming the top pick — a rare, inspiring rise that deserves far more attention than it’s gotten.But how likely is it that Cam Ward — or any draft pick — actually succeeds? John turns to some fascinating historical data compiled by Pro Football Reference. According to 20 years of draft outcomes, only about 7% of players drafted can be classified as truly “great” — the ones who earn a second contract with the team that drafted them. Meanwhile, roughly 70% of players either fail to stick with their team, contribute very little, or become average at best. The odds are steep — even for first-rounders.John points out that even first-round picks only sign a second contract with their original team about 30% of the time. So while excitement around Cam Ward is warranted, the reality is that the vast majority of picks — even early ones — don’t pan out. It’s a harsh reminder that predicting NFL success is almost impossible, no matter how polished a player’s college resume may look.To drive the point home, John reviews the past 10 Super Bowl quarterbacks, noting how wildly their draft positions varied: from first overall picks like Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford, to mid-round stars like Jalen Hurts (53rd overall), Nick Foles (88th overall), and Tom Brady (199th overall). Even Brock Purdy, a last-overall pick, has already taken the 49ers to a Super Bowl. Where you’re drafted, John argues, matters far less than what you do when you get your shot.Ultimately, John urges fans — especially Titans fans — to stay hopeful but grounded. Cam Ward’s story is a great one, but like every rookie, his NFL future is a giant unknown. Only time — and actual game reps — will reveal if the Titans’ gamble at No. 1 overall pays off.Will Ward beat the odds? Will he become a franchise cornerstone? One thing’s for sure: Saturday vs Sunday will be watching every step of the way.
