Episode 488
Good morning, good afternoon, or good evening, and welcome to the Paul Truesdell Podcast. It is Friday, September 26, 2025, and this is episode 488. Let’s begin with a simple request. Go get yourself a cup of coffee. Put your shoes on, lace them up, maybe get your golf cart ready. Even better, put in a pair of headsets or AirPods, step outside, and go for a walk. Do a little listening, do a little thinking, and do a little walking. Clear your head, move your body, and give your heart a bit of exercise. It is a trifecta that sets you up for sharper thinking and better conversations.
What we are about to cover is not background noise; it is the kind of thing that benefits from being digested while your body is in motion. So, treat this as a walk-and-think session. Listen closely, let the ideas bounce around while you take in the fresh air, and by the time you are back home, you will have more perspective than when you left.
Now, I will warn you. I am going to be sarcastic, because sarcasm often cuts through the fog. I am going to connect dots that at first might seem unrelated, and then I am going to explain why I do what I do here on the Paul Truesdell Podcast. The theme is always the same: governments — federal, state, county, and municipal. They are massive. They are powerful. And most of the time, people are not paying close enough attention to what they do with our money.
So today, let’s take a closer look at the beast in the room that nobody really wants to talk about. Let’s get started.
First or Phase One
When people ask me, “what percentage of the economy is the federal government,” I have to smile. Because it is one of those questions nobody asks until they realize Washington is not just the referee—it is one of the biggest players on the field.
There are two ways to measure this beast.
First, federal spending as a share of GDP. That is just a fancy way of saying, “how much of the entire U.S. economy is the government spending every single year.” Historically, in so-called normal times, Washington runs around twenty to twenty-two percent of GDP. One out of every five dollars in the economy is federal spending. That is the baseline.
But here is where it gets interesting. In times of crisis, the share spikes. During the Great Recession, spending hit twenty-four, twenty-five percent. And then came 2020. COVID hit, and the government threw money around like it was confetti at a parade. Federal spending surged to around thirty percent of GDP. Almost one-third of the entire economy ran through Washington’s fingers in a single year. And now, in 2025, projections put spending back in the twenty-three to twenty-five percent range. Translation: the crisis may have “ended,” but the appetite did not shrink. Once Washington stretches, it never snaps back.
Second, federal revenues as a share of GDP. That is the tax side. How much is actually flowing into the Treasury. This number is smaller. Usually, it hovers around sixteen to eighteen percent of GDP. So while Washington spends nearly a quarter of the economy, it only collects less than a fifth. That gap—between twenty-three to twenty-five percent out and sixteen to eighteen percent in—is not a rounding error. That is the deficit.
So let me put this in plain English. The U.S. economy is about a twenty-eight trillion-dollar machine. And every single year, the federal government spends roughly a quarter of that machine, while only collecting less than a fifth. Think about that. If you ran your household this way, you would be bankrupt before the next electric bill hit the mailbox. But in Washington, they call it “fiscal policy.”
And here is the foundation point you need to keep in mind: when one in every four dollars of the economy is coming from Washington, the government is not just a regulator or a safety net. It has become one of the largest sectors of the economy itself. That changes everything—how markets behave, how businesses invest, how individuals make decisions. It is the government as landlord, tenant, referee, and player all rolled into one.
That is the baseline. That is the foundation for everything else we are going to talk about.
Next or Phase Two
Let us take a moment to appreciate what we are witnessing. For the first time in my lifetime — and I have lived through Eisenhower, Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Ford, Carter, Reagan, Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden, and now Trump again — we are seeing a president who actually acts like a president. Donald J. Trump, number 45 and now number 47, has decided to play this game the way it should have always been played: no prisoners, no apologies, and certainly no participation trophies for obstructionists.
The message out of the White House is clear: keep the government funded or prepare for permanent pink slips. Not the usual furlough shuffle, not the typical “don’t worry, you’ll get back pay later” charade. No, this time it is reduction-in-force, and not a temporary one. Agencies are being told to identify positions that do not align with the president’s priorities, and once those jobs are gone, they are gone.
Naturally, the Democrats are shrieking. Chuck Schumer calls it intimidation, Hakeem Jeffries calls the budget director a “malignant political hack.” How original. You would think after half a century in Washington they could come up with something more creative than recycled playground insults. Their big stand? Insisting on hundreds of billions more in healthcare subsidies, plus reversing Medicaid cuts, plus unfreezing funds they do not control. In other words: “Give us everything we want, or else.”
Trump’s response was equally professional: he canceled the meeting. Why waste time with unserious people who believe compromise means the other side caves? This is not Reagan and Tip O’Neill sharing Irish whiskey in 1986. That was another era, one where dealmaking still existed. Today, Democrats treat governing as performance art, complete with hashtags and tearful press conferences. Trump treats it as a job — a job with deliverables and deadlines.
And about those deadlines: October 1 is the cutoff. The GOP has a seven-week stopgap plan on the table, already passed the House, and it includes added security funding after the tragic killing of Charlie Kirk. The Senate will return, Democrats will posture, and then the country will find out if they are willing to watch federal employees lose their jobs permanently just to preserve a bloated subsidy package.
The irony is delicious. For years we were told Trump was the chaos agent. Yet here he is, operating with methodical precision. He learned from his first term: the endless investigations, the de-platforming, the lawsuits. This time there is no illusion of bipartisanship for the sake of appearances. It is simple: here are the terms, take them or leave them.
So yes, there is a new sheriff in town — the same sheriff, actually, just wiser, tougher, and far less tolerant of nonsense. If Democrats want to play chicken, they had better realize Trump is not swerving. He has the wheel, the gas pedal, and the law on his side. And frankly, after watching decades of politicians stumble around like amateurs, it is refreshing to see someone finally willing to drive straight through the barricade.
Phase Three
Let us start with the basics. The United States has a population of about 340 million people. That is the headcount. Out of those, roughly 267 million are age 18 or older. So, call it almost four out of every five Americans who, at least by law, are adults. Now, being an “adult” and acting like one are two very different things, but we will save that for another day. For now, just keep in mind that the majority of this country is in that over-18 category.
Now let us narrow the lens. Out of those 267 million adults, who is actually working? The latest employment data shows around 163 million people are employed. That is not pa...
