📅 11 March 2026 | Hosted by Simon Brown
Powered by Standard Bank Global Markets, Retail & SHYFT
With geopolitical tensions and wild commodity moves, markets are extremely uncertain.
Simon's strategy right now?
🧘 Do nothing.
Panic trading rarely helps. In times of chaos, sometimes the best move is to step back, ignore the noise, and let events unfold.
Oil has been incredibly volatile.
📊 Recent moves
That still means oil is about 50% higher year-to-date.
The big issue remains disruption around the Strait of Hormuz.
🚢 Shipping traffic
Oil supply is slowly returning, but the situation remains fragile.
Higher oil prices feed directly into local fuel prices.
💸 Earlier estimates suggested:
After oil pulled back slightly:
Still extremely painful for the economy.
Oil shocks ripple through inflation.
📊 Rule of thumb:
Every $10 increase in oil adds ~0.4% to global inflation.
With oil roughly $30 higher, that could mean:
➡️ ~1.2% extra global inflation
For South Africa, that pushes inflation above 4% again.
Upcoming meetings:
Previously expected: rate cuts.
Now?
❌ Cuts unlikely
Central banks will wait to see if second-round inflation effects emerge, things like higher transport and food costs.
Markets are asking one thing:
How long does this conflict last?
Current signals:
One possible constraint: missile inventories.
Iran's cheaper drones and missiles are being intercepted by extremely expensive defence systems.
At some point, stocks run out.
The G7 strategic reserves may be tapped.
📦 Strategic reserves: ~1.2 billion barrels
Possible release:
➡️ 300–400 million barrels
This could cover roughly 15–20 days of supply shortages caused by Hormuz disruptions.
That would buy time while infrastructure is repaired.
✔ Conflict ends within weeks
✔ Strategic reserves released
✔ Oil stabilises in the $80s
🔥 War escalates
🔥 Shipping disruptions persist
🔥 Oil spikes to $150–$200
At those levels, we start seeing demand destruction — people simply use less energy.
Standard Bank has launched a new structured product.
📊 AI & Big Data Auto Call
Key features:
💰 Return: 14% per year
📅 Term: Up to 5 years
🔁 Auto-call: Annual payout if index is flat or positive
💵 Currency: Rand
📉 Capital protection: Up to 30% downside buffer at maturity
📥 Minimum investment: R25,000
The product tracks the Solactive AI & Big Data Index.
Top holdings include:
Total: 30 companies in the index.
South Africa released Q4 GDP.
📊 Q4 2025: +0.4%
Full-year growth:
Not amazing, but improving.
Forecast for 2026:
📈 1.6% – 1.8%
If that happens, SA could finally see GDP growth above population growth, meaning real gains in wealth per person.
The media industry continues consolidating.
Deal overview:
💰 Paramount Skydance buying Warner Bros Discovery
📦 Price: ~$100 billion
Netflix initially pursued the deal but walked away.
💵 Result:
New twist:
Tencent plans to invest several hundred million dollars in the acquisition.
For South African investors:
Satrix 40 → Naspers → Prosus → Tencent → Paramount.
Yes… it's complicated.
The concerns:
📉 Traditional media is declining
🤖 Studios betting on AI-generated content
🏛️ Politics may influence the deal
Warner Bros also has a long history of failed mega-mergers, including the infamous AOL–Time Warner disaster.
Simon's take:
This deal will likely be unwound later and probably at a lower price.
The US switched to daylight savings.
New trading times for South Africa:
📈 US markets open at 15:30 (was 16:30)
Simon is heading to Durban this weekend for his nephew's 18th birthday.
Time flies.
✔ Key Takeaway
Markets right now are being driven by geopolitics and energy prices.
Until the oil situation stabilises, central banks, and investors, are likely to remain cautious.
All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
