Market Updates & Analysis:
- Sasol Reversal Pattern? – Examining Sasol’s technical setup and the significance of a ‘kangaroo tail’ pattern.
- Rand Stability Amid Trump’s Threats – Despite geopolitical concerns, the rand remains steady.
- Top 40 at All-Time Highs – Market momentum and investor confidence.
South Africa’s Budget Speech (Wednesday, 2 PM SAST)
- Revenue shortfalls and potential tax bracket adjustments
- Universal Basic Income and National Health Insurance funding discussion
- Expectations for the fiscal policy outlook
Stock & Sector Insights:
- Telkom: Revenue up 0.9%, in a turnaround phase, but Simon remains skeptical about telcos.
- Santam: Strong earnings growth (40-60% increase in HEPS), but insurance sector risks remain.
- Shoprite*: Consumer stock pullback; long-term bullish outlook despite short-term pressure.
China Stocks & ETFs:
- Alibaba up 40% on Apple collaboration
- Satrix China ETF – is it time to reconsider investing in China?
- General sentiment split between ‘China is uninvestable’ vs. ‘China has potential’
Bond Market Watch:
- SA Bonds Showing Volatility: A significant move in bond yields post-Trump comments, raising concerns about borrowing costs.
Simon Brown
* I hold ungeared positions.
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