🌍 Global Markets Rundown
- Goldman Sachs suggests gold could plausibly hit $4,500/oz by year-end.
- Gold is currently around $3,200/oz, but volatility and uncertainty are driving prices higher.
- Gold miners are benefiting from the price surge, with big leverage showing up in earnings.
- Example: Pan African Resources made $900/oz at $2,250; could make $2,900 at $3,250.
- Big upside still possible if gold just holds or drifts higher.
- SA gold stocks (YTD performance):
- Pan African Resources +106%
- Harmony +76%
- AngloGold Ashanti* +72%
- Gold Fields +30% (with mine-related issues)
Gold | Weekly chart |15 April 2025
📉 Recession Watch
- Larry Fink (BlackRock) & Jamie Dimon (JPMorgan): “US may already be in a recession.”
- Trump’s constant tariff changes add more uncertainty.
- Growth is slowing, and inflation is stubbornly high (risk of stagflation).
- Treasury buyers are hesitant—money is going into gold, not US 10-year bonds.
- China's potential bond moves could rattle the entire global system.
💸 Currency Check
- The Rand recovered from nearly R20/USD to around R18.75/USD.
- Driven by dollar weakness, global uncertainty, and DXY dipping below 100.
- Local support for ZAR remains tentative but improving.
📊 ETFs & Resources Rally
- Satrix RESI ETF* now ~50% gold miners, up ~44% YTD.
- Resource-driven tax windfalls (like in 2021/22) show how profitable miners benefit the broader economy.
📈 Local Market Highlights
- Purple Group* (EasyEquities) finally breaks out:
- Strong results: HEPS up 204%.
- Thrive initiative charging inactive accounts adds meaningful revenue.
- Stock rallied from 92c to 118c in just over a week.
- Possible end to aggressive selling pressure—more upside ahead?
Simon Brown
* I hold ungeared positions.
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