Description

Trump Trade Tariffs & Global Market Impact:

• Initial tariffs of 10% (China) and 25% (Canada, Mexico) announced but later revised.
• U.S.-Canada relations strained, with Warren Buffett warning of reputational damage.
• Global negotiation shifts—China, Russia, and Europe eye opportunities.
• Continued U.S.-China trade tensions, including semiconductor restrictions and rare earth tariffs.
• Market volatility expected; long-term investment strategies recommended.

Investment Strategies Amid Uncertainty:

• Volatility is high—avoid panic selling.
• Keep cash reserves for opportunities (buy the dip cautiously).
• Long-term focus: presidential terms are temporary, investments span decades.

Interest Rate Decisions & Market Reactions:

• Bank of England expected to cut rates.
• U.S. Fed Chair Jerome Powell pauses rate hikes due to inflation concerns.
• South Africa's MPC cuts rates, prime now at 11%.
• Analysts predict one to two more rate cuts in 2024.

Gold Market Strength & Outlook:

• Gold price hovering near $2,900, with potential to break $3,000.
• Supply constraints—minimal new gold mining projects.
• Strong central bank purchases—1,000+ tons bought in 2023.
• Retail ETF inflows return after three years of outflows.
• Gold miners like Harmony, AngloGold*, and Pan African positioned well.

Gold weekly | 06 February 2025

Retail Sector & Consumer Spending:

• Mixed trading updates: Pick n Pay and Boxer show early turnaround signs.
• Modest growth in TFG, Mr. Price*, and Clicks; Shoprite* remains strong.
• Cautious consumer spending patterns persist.

Two-Pot Retirement System:

• Initial withdrawals lower than expected—around R50 billion.
• Future ongoing withdrawals expected as a structural component in SA's economy.

Vehicle Sales Trends:

• January sales at 46,400—stronger than expected.
• Used car market expanding, Chinese brands gaining traction.
• Auto sector investment options: CMH*, Motus, and Zeda.

Such African monthly vehicle sales

Sasol's Ongoing Struggles:

• Six-month trading update—earnings per share around R14.
• Continual asset write-downs and operational challenges.
• PE ratio suggests market pricing for bankruptcy, but survival likely.
• No clear turnaround signals yet—investors should wait for stronger confirmation.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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00:00 Market Overview and Podcast Introduction
01:10 Trump Tariffs and Global Trade Dynamics
06:25 Interest Rates and Economic Implications
10:02 Gold Market Trends and Predictions
12:51 Retail Sector Performance and Consumer Behavior
14:17 Vehicle Sales Insights and Market Trends
16:40 Sasol's Financial Challenges and Future Outlook