📌 Key Themes This Week
📊 Naspers share split – AGM approves a 5-for-1 split to make shares more affordable for smaller investors.
💬 Jackson Hole update – Jerome Powell’s last appearance as Fed Chair, shifting focus from inflation to jobs. Markets pricing in September & December rate cuts with high certainty.
💸 Trump & the Fed – Trump fires Fed Governor Lisa Cook ❌ and pushes to pack the Fed with rate-cut friendly members.
🇺🇸 Intel stake – Trump administration takes a 10% stake in Intel via the Chips Act, raising questions about “state capitalism.”
📉 Dollar weakness – Dollar index slides, Rand strengthens to R17.44, risk-on sentiment in global markets.
💷 UK debt crisis – 30-year gilt yields at levels last seen in 1998 (5.6%). Mounting debt costs threaten stability.
🏫 ADvTech*
Strong results: 5-year CAGR → Dividends +24%, Revenue +13%, EPS doubled.
Enrolments still growing vs. competitor Curro shrinking.
Expanding into tertiary education in Ghana 🇬🇭.
Solid valuation: PE ~15, dividend yield ~3%.
🚢 Grindrod
Decent numbers, disposing businesses to strengthen balance sheet.
Awarded 3rd-party rail access via Transnet 🚂.
Cheap valuation: PE ~8, Price/Book ~1.
🛢️ Sasol
Results stronger than expected: Free cash flow R12bn (up from R7bn).
Stock rallied past R120, eyeing R140.
Needs stronger chemical markets, higher oil & weaker Rand for tailwinds.
⚙️ Nvidia (results pending)
Market eagerly awaiting numbers. Results due Wednesday aftermarket.
🪖 Rheinmetall
German defence stock up +160% YTD on European defence demand.
Valuations stretched (PE 89 vs. mean 23). Possible overheated trade.
📉 US inflation & rate cuts – Markets expect two cuts in 2024, possibly November too. Powell less worried about inflation at 2.5–3%.
🏦 Tariffs & inflation – Spread over time, reducing immediate shock but sustaining price pressure.
💵 Debt & inflation – Inflation helps deflate $30T US debt mountain faster.
💷 UK bonds – Debt costs rising sharply, pushing the UK into deeper fiscal stress.
📉 S&P 500 at 23x earnings – Historically, this leads to flat 10-year returns (±2%).
💱 Dollar trend – Weakening outlook continues, aligning with Trump’s economic policy.
🇩🇪 Rheinmetall boom – Defence spending pushes stock sky-high, but risks of overheating.
📚 ETF database update – Now includes active ETFs 👉 justonelap.com/ETFdatabase.
🎥 Power Hour – Live session Tuesday 17:30 SA time, replay available later.
🎙️ Host: Simon Brown
📅 Recorded: Tuesday 27 August 2024
💡 Powered by Standard Bank & Shyft app
👉 Markets are on a risk-on rally 🚀, but with high valuations, debt risks, and political interference at central banks, caution remains the watchword.
All charts by KoyFin | Get 10% off your order
