Description

• SARB inflation target 🎯
  Inflation remains well below target at 2.8%, raising expectations of a rate cut at Thursday’s MPC meeting. New long-term target could shift to 3%.
  ⏳ Rate cut coming? Market’s betting on 25bps; Simon wants 50bps.
  💡 Lower target = anchored expectations = tamer wage negotiations.

• Peloton (PTON) 🚴‍♂️
  The pandemic darling may be turning a corner with solid free cash flow returning.
  💵 Q3 FY25: $94.6m FCF (vs $10.7m in Q1)
  📉 Stock at $7.50 (down from $170). Risky turnaround, but improving numbers.
  📊 Subscriptions reviving; de-risked but needs deeper digging.

• Gold Power Hour coming 19 June 🪙
  Event: “Know when to hold it, know when to fold it.”
  📆 19 June with Standard Bank
  📈 Gold had its highest ever weekly close – bullish candles and all.

• Rand strength 💪🇿🇦
  ZAR gaining momentum: from 19.90 to 17.88.
  🌍 Dollar index weakening, Trump tariff noise not shaking markets – yet.
  🔮 Simon sees 16.80 as possible ahead.

• USDZAR 27 May 2025 | weekly chart

  Trump tariffs whiplash 🇺🇸🌀
  🗓 Flip-flops on 50% EU tariffs: delay to June? Or back to July 9?
  🎭 Oval Office ambush with Ramaphosa. No real surprises.
  📉 Market's still waiting for an actual deal – not just handshakes.

• Renegen* (REN) & ASP Isotopes (ASPI) 🧪
  🚨 Renegen deal: 1 share of ASP gets ~0.09 of REN.
  🛑 Simon holding Renegen for Phase 2 helium – not keen on ASP.
  💰 Nasdaq listing delays = funding delays.

• Sasol (SOL) ⚖️
  💸 Transnet drops appeal, SOL gets R4bn court award.
  📈 Stock rally confirmed – chart looking better, Brent still a drag.
  🛢 Oil remains the key driver.

• Pick n Pay (PIK) 🛒
  📉 Still losing money, but less than before.
  👷 Sean Summers’ contract extended to 2028. Break-even delayed.
  💰 Boxer + R4bn cash > market cap = value if turnaround succeeds.
  🚧 Market says: “We don't believe it. Yet.”

• Nampak (NPK) 📦
  ✅ Another slow but steady turnaround.
  📊 Results not amazing but consumer headwinds easing.

• Altron (AEL) 🚗📡
  📈 Strong Netstar performance. Solid accounting tailwinds coming.
  💬 Simon: “One of the few real turnaround wins.”
  🧠 Potential still there – analyst upbeat.

• Harmony (HAR) + Copper 🇦🇺🔧
  💰 Buying Aussie copper mine for $1bn – diversifying away from gold.
  ⚖️ Adds immediate copper cash flow = de-risked future.
  🔌 Copper demand = chips, EVs, energy. Chart still flat for now.

• PGMs: Platinum & Palladium 💿
  🔁 Trading in long-term ranges (R830–R1100).
  📉 Not breaking out yet; charts uninspiring.
  📦 Stockpiles still working through post-Russia invasion.
  📉 EV transition and reduced supply in focus.

Simon Brown

* I hold ungeared positions.

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